美股IMMR-切割趨勢的策略(Take the Trends to Pieces)

問題: 面對美股IMMR 20071/1~2008/5/2的股價圖, 應如何交易? 以下分別以A, B, 及C三種方法加以比較.

A.原書內容:

1.資料來源: The Swing Trader's Bible by M. McCall & M. Whistler P.48 IMMR 2007/1/1~2008/5/2

2. 原書(黑線)分析如下:

a.exuberance: 是指股價衝向上或向下並使投資者產生迷惑的時侯, 此時通常有大利多的消息, 不論是在個股, 類股, 或大盤, 使投資誤認為可以輕輕鬆鬆賺取財富, 簡直像天上掉下來的禮物.

b.策略: Exuberance is a period when we generally do not trade in channels or envelopes and instead switch over to momentum strategies that focus on breakouts and breakdowns.

c. 重要點位:

#1 Exuberance: Here, we see where IMMR broke the psychological resistance of the $10 whole number and began a torrid rally upward. Break/momentum traders probably did very well at this time.

#2 Confirmed: When the 20EMA crossed above the top envelope, the event would have been confirmation that exuberance as real, and breakout traders should begin using momentum strategies, if they had already not done so.

#3 First Shot Fired: After rallying 100 percent, the stock quick fell back into the top envelope in August.  This was the first shot fire to suggest that a reversal could be pending.  After a large move, it is advisable to always wait for double top before going short.

#4 The Final Blow: IMMR tried to rally back above the top envelope, but this time, it quickly fell back below, with the coup de grace being that the 20EMA could not make it above the top envelope.

#5 The Reversal:  Losing about 65 percent on the value from the stop in July, when the stock approached $7, reversal traders were probably chomping at the bit to buy the stock.


d.比較: 上述A與下述B主力控盤或C透視主力方法的比較.






B.第一層藍色小框框為"主力控盤"的"關鍵k棒", 其要點為: 由"高低折線"之"末升低"(末跌高)取得的"關鍵k棒" , 並守"關鍵k棒"高點(低點)作為放空(作多)停損點, 請參閱 .透視"主力控盤操作學"--前言 C.其他顏色為"透視主力控盤"相關指標, 請參閱 1.基本功-『透視主力』的步驟及工具之圖解 10. 2012/08/17  新增 - 作多及放空標示記號: (1)作多進場為darkbrown色圓圈; 作多停利出場為darkblue色圓圈. (2)放空進場為darkblue色框框; 放空停利出場為darkbrown色框框. 2.   基本功-『透視主力』的操盤哲學-"度勢審時" 3.  基本功資料夾 4.  其他資料夾 


增補: [置頂]基本功-『透視主力』的步驟及工具之圖解 13.2013/1/8 變動如下: (1)綜合以前之指標(請參閱13之前的更動版本), (2)新增股價流向分析圖, 包括"流向軌道"及"流向指標",以及 (3)新增"擺盪指標"及"趨勢指標".

本文內容僅供參考，無任何買賣建議，投資人應謹慎評估，風險自負。